战争如何结束：对俄乌战争的洞察（英）-海牙战略研究中心-2022.3-19页

How do wars end? As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its third month, the fighting continues unabated. Despite staggering military losses and enormous human suffering, the war’s termi-
nation is not yet in sight. The Ukrainian people and their President Zelensky are determined to defend their country. They even have hopes of pushing back the Russian forces to theirpre-war positions. Russia meanwhile seems intent on consolidating its gains and expanding control over eastern Ukraine, and perhaps more. The outcome will no doubt be partially dictated by how things turn out on the ground, in the open lands of the Donbas. But absent any decisive Waterloo type of Battle, whether parties continue the war-or even escalateit-is determined by factors that transcend the battlefield, including their perceptions of prospects of victory, military, economic and humanitarian costs, international and domestic pressure, and faith in any post war settlement. This note considers what we can learn from war termi-
nations in the past: how long they last, how they end, whether they relapse, what factors contribute to their end, and what this implies for the Russia-Ukraine war.